Trump's Hispanic Support Falls Ahead of Midterms, Polls Show, Raising Stakes in Texas and House Races
Photo: CBS NewsPresident Donald Trump's standing with Hispanic voters has dropped sharply since his second term began, and polls show his approval near record lows ahead of Tuesday's congressional elections. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released last month put his approval among Hispanics at a record low of 24%, and Reuters/Ipsos separately found his overall approval near a record low, with many voters seeing their ballot as a way to oppose him. Pew Research Center found that about 24% of Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 do not plan to back Republican House candidates, while 65% still do and 11% plan to vote Democratic. Pew estimates 39 million Hispanic Americans are eligible to vote, about 5.2 million more than in 2022. In 2024 Trump won about 48% of Hispanic voters, up 12 points from 2020 and 20 points from 2016, and won a majority of Texas Hispanics. Frustration over the economy and worries about immigration policy are cited as reasons for the shift. Democrats see openings in Texas' Senate, House and governor's races, while Republicans say Democratic enthusiasm is still muted.
CBS News, the left-leaning outlet, leads with Texas and Democratic hopes. It features strategist Chuck Rocha, a CBS contributor who advises the Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates in Texas, predicting a "Hispanic hurricane" of uncertain strength. It adds the Republican rebuttal that Democratic enthusiasm is muted, and it stresses Pew's long-run data on Trump's 2024 gains. The New York Post, the right-leaning outlet, leads with the national House picture, framing the story as GOP incumbents in four races possibly being in trouble. It leans on the Reuters/Ipsos 24% approval figure and the Pew breakdown, including the 65% of Trump's Hispanic voters who remain loyal. It quotes Republican National Committee Hispanic outreach director Jaime Florez, who said candidates should be realistic and stress that two years remain. Both sides cite the same economic and polling data and agree on the downward trend. They differ in emphasis: the left stresses Democratic opportunity in Texas, while the right stresses specific House seats at risk and Republican messaging. Reuters, in the alternative group, only reports the overall approval figure.
How the sides differ Left sources center Democratic strategist optimism about a Texas Hispanic shift; right sources stress poll figures and endangered GOP House incumbents, with a Republican official urging realism.
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CBS News leads with Texas Democrats' hopes of a Hispanic shift, featuring strategist Chuck Rocha's "hurricane" forecast, Pew data on Trump's 2024 gains, and a brief Republican counterpoint.
Reuters reports that Trump's approval is near a record low and that many voters see the midterm vote as a way to oppose him, based on its Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The New York Post focuses on GOP House incumbents who could be vulnerable, citing Reuters/Ipsos and Pew numbers and quoting RNC Hispanic outreach director Jaime Florez on realistic messaging.