Texas Senate Race Tightens as Early Voting Jumps and Talarico Holds Slim Poll Edge

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin holds a small, steady polling edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, while early voting is up about 50% from the same point in the 2022 midterms. The seat is held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, and Paxton won a hotly contested primary to be the GOP nominee. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Talarico is 37. Early turnout has been particularly strong among voters with Democratic primary histories. The midterm elections were about a week away in the latest report. Reason said the national climate is difficult for Republicans, citing unpopular tariffs and an unpopular war under President Donald Trump, and said voter dissatisfaction with the state's data center boom is helping Talarico.

Newsmax, the right-leaning outlet covering the story, leads with the turnout figure. Its headline and excerpt stress the roughly 50% increase over 2022 and the strength among voters with Democratic primary histories. The excerpt does not mention the candidates, the polls or data centers. Left-leaning outlets had not reported this story at the time of writing, while the right-leaning and alternative outlets had. The alternative outlets take a different angle from Newsmax and center on Talarico. Reason profiles him as a liberal who supports trans rights and is out of step with the median Texas voter. It also points to Paxton's scandals and the data center backlash as factors in his competitiveness. France 24 asks whether a Democrat could win statewide in Texas and notes Talarico could win the Senate seat for the first time in decades. Both the right-leaning and alternative coverage point to Democratic strength, but they differ in evidence: turnout data on one side, polls and political context on the other.