Republicans Make Final Push as Forecasts Favor Democrats in Tuesday's Midterm Elections

Republicans made a final push on Sunday, November 1, 2026, to limit expected losses in Tuesday's midterm elections, in which polls and forecasters indicate Democrats are likely to win the House and have a real chance at the Senate. President Donald Trump held rallies for candidates in Iowa and Kansas, states where his party would ordinarily feel confident. On Saturday, the Cook Political Report moved a dozen more House races toward Democrats and projected they would flip 12 to 25 seats, which could give them their largest majority since 2009. As of Sunday afternoon, VoteHub and Decision Desk put Democrats' odds of taking the House at 89% and 83%, while the Kalshi prediction market gave them a 93% chance of the House and 71% of the Senate. Trump enters the vote with the lowest job approval of his career. A Pew Research Center poll found 67% of his 2024 voters approve of his performance, down from 95% early in his second term. In Michigan, a Democratic congresswoman, Haley Stevens, backed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

Fox News, the right-leaning outlet, opens with forecasts and numbers: Cook's rating shifts, VoteHub and Decision Desk odds, Kalshi prices, and Senate races moving left, though it says Republicans keep slightly better odds in the Senate. Its framing is largely about the electoral map, with Senate control described as a coin flip. The Los Angeles Times, on the left, shares the sense of a coming Democratic wave but focuses on Trump's standing and what follows: his record-low approval, Republican factions breaking ranks, and Pew and New York Times/Siena polling on whether the party should change course. It quotes Marc Short saying Republicans are in triage mode. Both sides agree Democrats are favored. They differ in that the right cites forecasting odds, while the left stresses Trump's weakness and the GOP's future. The Hindu, an alternative source, adds Trump's Iowa and Kansas rallies, Democratic nerves, Sen. Raphael Warnock's "nauseously optimistic" remark, and the Michigan party rift.