Talarico Leads Paxton in Final Polls as Texas Senate Race Nears Election Day

Democrat James Talarico led Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by six to seven points in two closing polls of the Texas U.S. Senate race, days before the midterm election. An AtlasIntel poll of 1,678 respondents, taken October 28 to November 1, put Talarico at 51.3 percent and Paxton at 45.4 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. A New York Times/Siena College survey of 5,708 likely voters, taken October 23 to November 1, had Talarico at 50 percent and Paxton at 43, with a margin of about 3.4 points. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1988, and Talarico was a relatively unknown state-level figure until recently. Neither poll predicts the result. On Fox News, Paxton told host Kayleigh McEnany that Talarico is a deceiver hiding his real views from Texans. Asked about Talarico's support for a Democratic plan to expand the Supreme Court if the party wins Congress, Paxton said the founders got the court's size right and accused Democrats of seeking a more liberal agenda and extra states, from Puerto Rico to D.C.

CBS News, the left-leaning source, frames the race as high-stakes and leads with correspondent Adriana Diaz speaking to Texas voters. Its available text names both candidates but gives no poll figures or candidate quotes. Townhall, on the right, leads with Paxton's Fox News interview. Its headline says he identified why Talarico does not represent Texas, and it centers on his court-packing and statehood claims and his argument that his record matches his rhetoric while Talarico's does not. It gives no polling numbers. Both sides treat the contest as imminent and name both candidates, but one centers voters and the other Paxton's attacks. Newsweek, the alternative source, differs from both by focusing on the polls, their margins of error, and the chance of the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988.