Seven Senate Races Seen as Key to Control as Midterm Election Day Nears

Seven competitive U.S. Senate races, in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, are expected to decide partisan control of the chamber in the midterm elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. New polling released Sunday by The New York Times and Siena University showed Democrats edging out Republicans in seven competitive races, though most of the results were statistical ties. The polling gave Democrats an 11-point lead in the Michigan race. The Cook Political Report lists all seven states as toss-ups and ranks control of the Senate as a toss-up, while Fox News power rankings call the fight a coin flip. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has campaigned with candidates in key states, including Iowa. He told CBS News that the unpopular U.S. military conflict with Iran will likely hurt Republican candidates, and that gas prices are a short-term problem, but he said the economy is set up for growth. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, pointed to momentum for Democratic candidates in Maine, Michigan and Alaska.

Right-leaning coverage, from Just the News (carrying a Center Square piece), is a race-by-race preview built around forecasters' ratings. It leads with the current 53-47 Republican majority and the four seats Democrats need, cites Cook and Fox News rankings, and quotes Thune on the Iran conflict and gas prices alongside Gillibrand's claims of Democratic momentum. Its headline frames the story as a guide to races to watch, not as a polling lead for either party. The alternative outlet The Hill takes a different angle, leading with the New York Times/Siena polling and Democrats' narrow edges, including the 11-point Michigan lead, and noting that most margins are statistical ties. The two sources agree the races are tight and decisive for control. They differ in that one emphasizes poll leads for Democrats and the other emphasizes toss-up ratings and party leaders' statements. Left-leaning outlets had not reported this story at the time of writing, while the other two sides had.