Midterm Poll Shows Democratic Lead and Enthusiasm Gaps as Trump Targets El-Sayed in Michigan

A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released days before the midterm elections found Democrats leading Republicans 52 percent to 44 percent on the generic congressional ballot, though enthusiasm lagged among some Democratic-leaning groups. Only 42 percent of likely voters under 45 said they were very enthusiastic about voting, along with 53 percent of non-white voters and 56 percent of college-educated white women, versus 68 percent of MAGA voters. While 98 percent of Democratic likely voters planned to back their party's candidate, 81 percent expected that candidate to win; among Republicans the gap was 10 points. In Michigan, President Donald Trump told a rally in Port Huron over the weekend that a win by Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed would invite terror and violence, and he called El-Sayed a Muslim Brotherhood member. El-Sayed, a former public health official, holds a narrow polling lead over Republican Mike Rogers, and a separate poll found 95 percent of Michigan Democrats backing El-Sayed and 4 percent backing Rogers.

Breitbart's Nolte, relaying Daily Mail reporting, leads with the enthusiasm figures, the 17-point versus 10-point confidence gap and the 68 percent MAGA number, then argues that polling is corrupt or incompetent. NPR also sees Democrats as poised for gains but treats lagging enthusiasm as a sign those gains may not come easily. HuffPost skips the national poll and leads with Trump's Port Huron remarks, calling them Islamophobic and the Muslim Brotherhood label false, and noting that Trump brought out the father of Flight 93 passenger Todd Beamer. Left and right agree Democrats lead overall and that key Democratic groups are less enthusiastic; they differ on whether that signals Republican momentum or only limited Democratic gains. Truthout offers a distinct angle, challenging the idea that Michigan Democrats are split on El-Sayed.