Midterms Tuesday: Final Poll Shows Democrats Ahead in Most Key Senate Races

Americans vote Tuesday, November 3, in midterm elections that will decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress. A final New York Times/Siena poll shows Democrats leading in most of seven key Senate battlegrounds, including Texas and Kansas. The poll, released Sunday and conducted October 23 to November 1, found Democrats ahead in at least five states, with others close to tied. Many races are within the margin of error. Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for 51, since Vice President JD Vance would break a 50–50 tie. All 435 House seats are also on the ballot, and polls largely favor Democrats there. Don Levy of the Siena Research Institute said Democratic control of the Senate is a distinct possibility, but a majority for either party remains possible. Voters who decided in the last month favored Republicans by nine points, the Times reported. Democrats are drawing on President Donald Trump's low approval rating, cost-of-living worries and the war with Iran.

Left-leaning outlets The Guardian US and Politico lead with stakes and strategy rather than poll numbers. The Guardian offers an explainer on races to watch, casting the vote as a referendum on Trump, who has urged voters to treat him as if he were on the ballot. Politico covers national groups spending in state supreme court races in hopes of liberal majorities in two years. Right-leaning outlets Fox News and The Daily Signal lead with the Times/Siena poll itself. Fox headlines warning signs for Republicans, quotes Levy, notes Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, and features Kansas and South Carolina reporters. The Daily Signal stresses the nine-point Republican edge among late deciders. Both sides treat the Senate as competitive and Democrats as favored in the House. They differ on what they stress: Democratic opportunity and long-term influence on the left, versus poll data and late Republican movement on the right. Alternative outlets France 24 and TRT World add committee powers and a Democrats-ahead snapshot.