Final Polls Favor Democrats in Midterms, but Past Polling Misses Prompt Caution

Democrats enter Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections ahead in final polls, with a New York Times/Siena poll released Sunday showing Democratic candidates leading in five Republican-held Senate seats: Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. The poll found Iowa virtually tied and a double-digit Democratic lead in Michigan, the only Democratic-held seat surveyed. Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said Democrats could win Senate control but that many races fall within the margin of error, so either party could still hold a majority. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. The Times also had South Carolina, which Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024, tied, and CNN surveys put Democrats ahead in Texas, Kansas and Maine. Polls suggest Democrats lead in well over the 218 House seats needed to flip that chamber. Polls have missed before: Trump beat predictions in 2016 and 2024, and polls this year were far off in the Michigan Senate and Wisconsin governor primaries.

Left-leaning outlets frame the race as a Democratic opportunity. CBS News headlines the Times/Siena edge in Ohio's Senate and governor races and interviews Nina Turner, a former Ohio Democratic state senator. Politico looks past Tuesday, reporting that national groups are spending in battleground state supreme court races hoping for liberal majorities in two years. Fox News, on the right, uses the same poll but leads with warning signs for Republicans, listing the seven battlegrounds, Levy's caution and a segment on the tight Kansas and South Carolina races. Both sides rely on the Times/Siena numbers; they differ in emphasis, with the left highlighting Democratic gains and judicial strategy and the right highlighting Republican exposure. Alternative outlets Straight Arrow News and BBC News stand apart by questioning the polls' reliability, citing earlier misses and Ipsos's Clifford Young on how hard polling has become.