Cook Political Report Shifts Races Toward Democrats Days Before Tuesday's Midterm Elections

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, said Friday it had moved 14 U.S. House and Senate races and four governor's races toward Democrats, projecting the party would win the House in Tuesday's midterm elections with 227 to 240 seats. Cook said Democrats would flip 12 to 25 House seats and are favored in enough races to reach the 218 needed for control. Voters will decide all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, and Democrats need four seats for a majority. Cook forecasts a Democratic net gain of two to six Senate seats. It lists seven Senate toss-ups: Iowa, Arkansas, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. All but Michigan are Republican-held. Cook said the House battlefield has widened, citing President Donald Trump's weak approval rating and Republican spending that appears to be doing little to offset a tough environment. It said Democrats could win their largest House majority since 2009. Rating shifts touched Florida, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Kansas and Arizona.

The right-leaning Daily Mail focuses on the Senate, with a list of 10 races it says will decide control. It says October polling has consistently favored Democrats and quotes Trump voicing doubt about whether Republican voters will turn out when he is not on the ballot. It also notes that Republicans are outraising Democrats nationally and in key races. It names Maine, Michigan, Texas and Alaska as pivotal and North Carolina as the likely first Democratic pickup. It highlights scandals and family dramas, and does not foreground Cook's House forecast. The left-leaning Washington Post leads with Cook's call that Democrats could win up to 240 House seats, with the nonpartisan forecaster as its source. The Guardian US runs a podcast with Cook's Carrie Dann on races to watch. Both sides agree Democrats are advantaged and the Senate is in play; they differ on whether to stress the House forecast or Republican fundraising and turnout. Newsweek largely tracks the Cook update, and The Hindu's Senate-focused piece resembles the Mail's.