CNN poll shows Democrats ahead in Maine, Kansas, Michigan and Texas Senate races days before election

A CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday, Oct. 29, shows Democratic Senate candidates ahead in Maine, Kansas, Michigan and Texas days before Tuesday's election, though the Maine and Kansas leads are within the margin of error. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 45%. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 45%. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42%. Trump's disapproval is highest in Maine at 61% and lowest in Kansas at 45%. Democrats need to flip four seats to reach 51 and are widely projected to win the House. Collins is the only Republican incumbent running in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024, and Jackson replaced the earlier nominee, Graham Platner. At least 12.5% of voters say they could still change their minds. Hamilton, a former Republican who founded a Methodist megachurch, has out-raised Marshall in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2024. The final CNN/SSRS poll of 2024 overstated Harris's position in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Slate, on the left, writes an analysis rather than a poll report, calling this a Democratic dream scenario. It centers on Hamilton's moderate profile and fundraising, Marshall's reported lawsuits against patients over unpaid bills, and Trump's falling approval, while noting that polls could be wrong. The right splits. The Daily Mail's headline warns that Trump's Senate majority is under threat, stresses double-digit disapproval even among Republicans and the Texas lead, and adds a caution about the 2024 CNN poll. Fox News calls Maine and Kansas neck and neck, and leads with Collins' interview, where she stresses federal funding and says Jackson would rank 100th in seniority. It also covers the Platner replacement and the share of undecided voters. All three agree on the narrow Democratic leads; they differ on whether the story is Democratic candidate strength, Republican danger or tight contests. The Hill's short report matches the margin-of-error framing.