Democrats Favored for House, Senate Control Tighter, Forecasts Show 10 Days Before Midterms

Democrats are favored to win the House and hold a better-than-even chance of taking the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections, according to forecasts published 10 days before the vote. Silver Bulletin gives Democrats a 95 percent chance of winning the House and a 76.4 percent chance of Senate control, and its model, updated October 22, projects a 52–48 Democratic Senate. VoteHub puts Democrats' Senate chances at 60 percent and also projects 52–48, while Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolling averages show a closer fight. Republicans now hold a 53–47 majority, so Democrats must keep every seat they hold and flip four more. Eight states (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, South Carolina and Texas) have Senate races separated by fewer than four points in Nate Silver's polling average. Ohio, reliably Republican for several elections, is competitive, and Democrats there would need to win voters who have backed Republicans, including rural voters. The result will determine which party advances legislation, leads committees and scrutinizes President Donald Trump in his final two years in office.

Right-leaning outlets had not reported this story at the time of writing, while left-leaning and alternative/independent outlets had. On the left, NPR leads with Ohio and argues rural voters could decide the winner there, while The Guardian US offers a video explainer by reporter Shrai Popat on the key races and the seats Democrats need. Neither cites forecast percentages in the excerpts. Newsweek, the alternative outlet, differs by centering polling and model probabilities, naming the forecasters and the eight closest states.