Senate Forecasts Favor Democrats as Trump Backs Paxton in Texas Race
Photo: NewsweekRepublicans enter the 2026 midterms with a 53-47 Senate majority, and several forecasters give Democrats the edge to win the chamber. Decision Desk HQ puts Democrats' chances at 57 percent. RacetotheWH says 73 percent and projects 52.5 seats. Polymarket users gave Democrats 68 percent as of Friday. Because JD Vance would break a 50-50 tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats, while Republicans can lose three and keep control. The Cook Political Report rates a Democratic flip of North Carolina by Roy Cooper as likely. In Texas, President Donald Trump said on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures" that Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, deserves to win. He called Paxton the greatest attorney general in Texas history and criticized Democratic nominee James Talarico, using a nickname. Trump said Talarico opposes oil and gas drilling, guns and meat, and claimed he disappeared for 12 days.
Right-leaning coverage differs from the alternative source. Breitbart leads with Trump's Paxton endorsement, prints his remarks at length, and offers no polling. Townhall runs a columnist's opinion piece, labeled as the writer's own view, that traces the Bush family's political career from Prescott Bush's 1952 Senate election to George W. Bush's Texas governorship, and presents it as a warning for the party. It covers George H.W. Bush's broken tax pledge and 1992 loss and says the Bush family has haunted Republicans. Newsweek, the alternative source, focuses on forecasts and seat arithmetic, with no Paxton or Bush material in the excerpt. Left-leaning outlets had not reported this story at the time of writing, while alternative and right-leaning outlets had. Those outlets focus on Senate odds, Trump's endorsement and Republican history.
How the sides differ Left sources have not covered this; right sources feature Trump's praise of Paxton and a Bush-family column, while alternative sources stress Senate odds.
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Not covering this story. None of the left-leaning outlets Crosswire tracks has reported it yet. What one side leaves out can be as telling as what the others report.
Newsweek leads with forecasts and prediction-market odds for a Democratic Senate majority, citing Decision Desk HQ, RacetotheWH, Polymarket and the Cook Political Report, plus seat math involving Vance's tiebreaking vote.
Breitbart leads with Trump's televised praise of Paxton and attacks on Talarico, quoting him at length. Townhall runs a columnist's historical argument that the Bush family has hurt Republicans.