California Voters Decide on Prop 40, a One-Time 5% Tax on State Billionaires

California voters are set to decide Tuesday on Proposition 40, a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of about 250 billionaires in the state. Organizers estimate the measure would raise roughly $100bn, most of it directed to healthcare to offset federal cuts in the 2025 tax bill backed by Trump and Republicans. It would be the first tax on billionaires anywhere in the world. Opponents argue it would trigger an exodus of billionaires to lower-tax states and shrink the state's tax base. Supporters dispute that. Six Nobel Prize-winning economists said it would start a movement to tax ultra-high-net-worth people in other states, then federally and in other countries. Two economists who studied the proposal reached sharply different conclusions on whether it would fill or drain state coffers. The measure has also divided California Democrats.

Left-leaning coverage splits in tone. The Guardian US runs an opinion column by George Zimmer, a wealthy Californian who is not a billionaire. He calls the measure a win for everyone, features the $100bn estimate and the Nobel economists' statement, and rebuts the exodus argument. NPR instead frames an open question, leading with two economists' conflicting conclusions on whether the tax would fill or drain state coffers and what it could mean for taxing the superrich nationally. Both outlets center economic effects, but one advocates and the other weighs evidence. NewsNation, the alternative outlet, differs by leading on divisions among California Democrats and unanswered questions, while explaining what a yes vote means. Right-leaning outlets had not reported this story at the time of writing, while left-leaning and alternative outlets had.