Texas Senate Race: Talarico Leads Paxton in Final Polls as Campaigns Make Closing Pitches

Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas U.S. Senate race in closing polls released just before voting, with an AtlasIntel survey showing him ahead 51.3% to 45.4%. A New York Times/Siena College poll put Talarico up 50% to 43%. AtlasIntel surveyed 1,678 respondents from October 28 to November 1 online, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. The Times/Siena Texas survey polled 5,708 likely voters from October 23 to November 1, with a margin of about 3.4 points. The RealClearPolitics average showed a narrower gap, 49% to 46.5%. A Talarico win would be the first Democratic Senate victory in Texas since 1988. Paxton is the state attorney general and Talarico is a state representative. In a pro-Paxton ad, Brooks County Sheriff Benny Martinez, a Democrat first elected in 2016, said Talarico voted against cracking down on cartels, against tougher sentences for human traffickers and to release violent offenders without bail.

Right-leaning outlets frame the race as close and focus on candidates' liabilities and messaging. The Washington Examiner relays commentator Guy Benson, who said on Fox News that Paxton's impeachment and corruption label hurt him, but called Talarico a candidate who looks like a youth pastor yet votes like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and is reinventing himself as a moderate. It cites the narrower RealClearPolitics average. Breitbart leads with the Democratic sheriff's ad attacking Talarico's record on border security and crime, and adds the sheriff's account of migrant deaths in Brooks County falling more than 90% after President Donald Trump shut down the border. Alternative outlet Newsweek takes a distinct, poll-centered angle. It stresses the larger Talarico leads in two closing surveys, says they point to an advantage rather than a statistical tie, and notes neither poll predicts the result. Left-leaning outlets had not reported this story at the time of writing, while right-leaning and alternative outlets had.