CNN Poll Shows Democrats Ahead in Maine, Kansas, Michigan and Texas Senate Races Before Election

A CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday, Oct. 29, found Democrats leading U.S. Senate races in Maine, Kansas, Michigan and Texas days before Tuesday's election, with the Maine and Kansas leads inside the margin of error. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson led Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 45%. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton led Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 45%. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42%, and Democrats also led in Texas. Trump's disapproval was highest in Maine, at 61%, and lowest in Kansas, at 45%. Democrats need to flip four seats to reach 51. Jackson replaced Graham Platner as Maine's nominee, and at least 12.5% of Maine voters say they could still change their minds. Hamilton, a former Republican who founded a Methodist megachurch, has out-raised Marshall in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2024.

Slate, on the left, frames the story as Democrats being competitive where they shouldn't be, spotlighting Hamilton's moderate profile, fundraising and a New York Times report that Marshall sued hundreds of patients over unpaid bills, while cautioning that polls could be wrong. The right-leaning outlets use the same poll. The Daily Mail leads with a threat to Trump's majority, adds double-digit disapproval even among Republicans and notes CNN/SSRS missed in 2024. Fox News calls the races tight, leads with a Collins interview and her claim that Jackson would rank 100th in seniority, and details the path to 51 seats. Both sides cite the 49-45 leads; they differ on candidate scandals versus incumbent arguments. The Hill largely matches the shared figures, stressing the margin of error.