Cook Political Report Projects Democratic House Majority Ahead of Tuesday's Midterm Elections
Photo: The HillThe Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, on Friday shifted 12 more House races toward Democrats, days before Tuesday's midterm elections. It now projects a Democratic House majority of between 227 and 240 seats, with more than 218 seats rated at least "lean Democrat." All 435 House seats are on the ballot Tuesday. Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority that virtually all pollsters and forecasters expect them to lose. The size of that swing will shape the last two years of President Trump's term.
Texas is a key battleground. After Trump made historic gains with Latino voters and won the state by large margins, Texas Republicans redrew congressional districts to strengthen their House advantage. Polls suggest Hispanic support for Republicans has softened since 2024, and some GOP officials fear the redistricting could backfire. In the 15th District, Democrat Bobby Pulido, a Latin Grammy-winning singer, leads Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in most polls. Trump carried the district by 18 points in 2024, up from three in 2020, and De La Cruz won re-election by 14 points, according to Cook. In the 35th District, Republican Carlos De La Cruz led Democrat Johnny Garcia 48% to 47% in an October poll.
The Washington Post, on the left, leads with the Cook forecast itself. Its headline puts the figure of up to 240 Democratic seats up front, and it says Democrats are favored in enough races to win the majority. The Daily Wire, on the right, opens with the stakes: all 435 seats and a Republican majority forecasters expect to lose. It then profiles 12 races, mostly through candidates, local polls and Texas redistricting, and cites Cook for district history rather than for the Democratic projection. Both sides treat a Democratic House win as the expected outcome. The difference is emphasis. The left centers the forecaster's numbers, while the right centers individual contests and Republican worries about redistricting. The Hill's coverage closely tracks the Post's focus on Cook's shifts.
How the sides differ Left sources emphasize Cook's forecast of up to 240 Democratic seats; right sources stress what is at stake and profile a dozen races, especially in Texas.
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The Washington Post leads with Cook Political Report's assessment that Democrats are favored in enough House races to win the majority, with a projection of up to 240 seats.
The Hill reports that Cook shifted 12 more House races toward Democrats on Friday, projecting a Democratic majority of 227 to 240 seats in the final stretch of the cycle.
The Daily Wire opens with the Republican 218-214 majority forecasters expect to be lost, then profiles 12 key races, with extended detail on Texas districts, polls and Republican redistricting worries.