CNN Poll Shows Democrats Ahead in Texas, Michigan as Maine, Kansas Senate Races Stay Tight

A new CNN poll of four states, taken in the final days of the midterm campaign, finds Democrats ahead in the Senate races in Michigan and Texas, while Maine and Kansas remain too close to call. In Maine, 49% of respondents favored Democrat Troy Jackson and 45% favored Republican Sen. Susan Collins, and at least 12.5% of voters said they could still change their minds. Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats to reach a 51-seat majority, which would protect them from the vice presidential tiebreaker. Some of their targets are in states President Trump won by double digits in 2024. Collins is the only Republican incumbent running in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. Jackson, the former president of the Maine state Senate, entered the race as a replacement after nominee Graham Platner dropped out. Collins told Fox News Digital she can bring federal funding to Maine and said Jackson would rank 100th in seniority if elected. Democrats are widely projected to win the House. Election Day is November 3.

The left-leaning outlets frame the story around Democrats' route to power. CNN's headline says Democrats are in striking distance and highlights the party's path to a majority. The New York Times stresses how hard that path is, noting Trump's double-digit 2024 wins in some target states, and offers analysis from election data reporter Evan Reynolds. Their excerpts do not mention Collins's pitch or Platner. Fox News reports the same CNN numbers but leads with Maine and Kansas being neck and neck, builds the story around Collins's interview and her seniority attack on Jackson, and calls Platner scandal-plagued. Its linked headline also calls Jackson a socialist rival. Both sides agree on the poll results and the four-seat threshold. They differ in whether they emphasize Democratic opportunity or Republican resilience. Tangle, an independent newsletter, focuses only on the Maine race between Collins and Jackson.